Video Transcript:
Hi. In this video, I’m just going to talk about the recent price action where the price has obviously seen a pretty quick selloff, and then apply all the ICT principles and analyze the price action to see what the critical levels are to watch going forward and how we read the price action starting today, which is Friday, November 21st, and then going into next week. All right. So if you look at it, this is the NQ chart and this is a monthly chart, and as you can see here, you have this monthly sell-side liquidity that has been taken out. So if you look at the monthly chart, the structure is still very, very bullish, and this is where the liquidity was taken out—the sell-side, the low. If I go and look at the weekly chart, again, because this was a monthly low, it was the weekly low as well, and right now it’s trading into this order block where this candle closes. This candle will close today at end of day because this is a weekly candle, this is the current week’s candle. So if we look at it here, this is the weekly order block, a bullish order block. Now today, if the price closes somewhere in the middle, then what it means is that on the weekly chart the structure would still be very bullish because all it really did was come down, run this liquidity (which was also monthly sell-side liquidity), and then continue trading into the order block. Now, if it closes below this—so for example, if the close is below this structure—then it would actually indicate a much more bearish tone to the market. But if it closes within this structure, it very likely would mean that this is just a run on liquidity and then perhaps we can expect a reversal of sorts right here. So it is very important to look at this price action in the context of the monthly and weekly timeframes. Now let’s look at the daily. If you look at the daily, this was the all-time high and this is the low that it made overnight at 23904. If I draw this dealing range here, you have this high to the low, and then you see engineered buy-side liquidity because there is a buy-side here and a buy-side here, and this buy-side liquidity is also in premium of this range. So if we start to see some strength today, in my mind this is the drawn liquidity: 25361.25. Now from here to the buy-side, what do we have as an obstacle in between? And that would be this bearish order block. So if we start to see some strength, perhaps we will see something like this because this being a bearish order block, the price may stagnate here, and then if we start to see strength, where the price closes above this, very likely it’s going to take it out. The other scenario can be if the price just gets to the bearish order block and rolls over; then it’s a different story. So this is a very important area relative to where the price is versus where the potential drawn liquidity can be, and one needs to monitor this very closely. Now if I look at it in a different way, same chart on 30 minutes, this is how I’m going to be analyzing it. Think about this as the sell-side of the curve where the price started to come down, and we have this quick selling here from yesterday’s price action. My focus is now on this price leg. If we start to see something like this, where the price closes above this high—this is a consolidation—then if it gets to this area, likely it’s going to go for this consolidation high, which is the next consolidation on the buy-side of the curve. And if it gets there, then very likely this will be the path. This is 25310, and then after that, this is 25361, which is why I’m saying it’s engineered buy-side. So we can use the market maker buy model framework to analyze this path. If this is the sell-side of the curve, this can be the buy-side, and this area of consolidation here and here can provide fairly important clues. So potentially, if it crosses this high, then the price getting to the high of this range—because this is also in premium—is extremely likely. This would be a fairly tradable opportunity if this happens. And then if it gets here, depending on the session and what time it is, if we get a bullish signal, then this can be another trade that can be taken. But getting to premium, past equilibrium, is definitely going to be a high-probability trade if it crosses this level. And this is just based on the market maker buy model. Again, what I’m trying to do in this video is combine a lot of ICT concepts and provide a framework that can be used to read the market as we go into the New York session today. Going back to the daily chart here, let’s say the price gets here and runs this liquidity. Depending on what it does here, if this specific CVI that I have marked gets inverted, then very likely the price will also get here, and you can see there is a large liquidity pool right here, but that is beyond where the price currently is. Right now, my focus for today’s session is going to be from this low to this high. This is the band we’re going to be playing in today, and we’ll see what the New York session brings. But in terms of the whole analysis right now, the critical thing would be to see on the weekly chart where this weekly candle is going to be closing today, by end of day Friday. So that’s about it for this, and then I’ll see you in the…
Hey everyone, it’s Dale here. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you’d like to trade alongside me and our team of prop firm funded traders every day, then click the link below the video and hop aboard. We’re looking forward to trading with you.
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