Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with a new Weekly Trading Ideas video. Today, we’re going to look at three trading ideas. We’ll take a look at the ES, then USD/CAD, and finally USD/CHF. So, let’s check out the charts.
What you see before you is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. This is the 30-minute chart of the ES, which represents the S&P 500 index. What I want to focus on here is the strong sell-off that occurred on Friday. As you can see, I have a short level right here at the start of that sell-off. The level is at 6784, and it is based on two main things.
The first and most important thing is volume. If you look at this profile on the left, it shows how volumes were distributed throughout the whole previous week. This is the weekly Volume Profile. The most important place in that weekly Volume Profile is the Weekly Point of Control, right here. That means the heaviest volumes in that week were traded at this level. From this heavy-volume zone from the previous week, the strong sell-off started. This is a very strong signal and very important information that the market gives us — it shows that sellers were accumulating their short positions throughout the whole week, as visible on the Volume Profile, and then they initiated this sell-off.
Right now, I think that when the price makes a pullback here, there’s a solid chance that this level will work as resistance because sellers will want to defend this area. So, the price should react from this level. It’s not only the Weekly Point of Control but also the beginning of a rather large Fair Value Gap, highlighted in red. This is the beginning of it — the place where I like to trade from. There’s another Fair Value Gap just below it, and since they are so close, I treat them as one big Fair Value Gap even though technically they aren’t. The beginning of this large gap is exactly at my level, which makes it even stronger.
So, these are the reasons I’d like to take a short from this place. Now, we just need a pullback — if it happens, I’ll go short from there because this is a strong sign of sellers, and they should be active when the price hits the area where they accumulated most of their shorts. You can see this on the Volume Profile on the left. You can also use the Flexible Volume Profile — the one you can move around. As you can see, the heavy-volume zone is visible here as well. If I extend it to cover the whole area, you can clearly see the Point of Control.
That’s the logic behind this short. For now, we just need to wait.
Let’s move on to the next trading idea — USD/CAD. The scenario here is very similar. Again, we’re looking at the 30-minute chart. This time, the chart is reversed, so we’re looking at a long trade scenario. My long level is right here at 1.3952. If you look at the weekly Volume Profile on the left, you can see how volumes were distributed over the previous week. Again, we have the Weekly Point of Control here — and from this level, strong trend activity started. It’s the same logic as with the ES, only reversed. We’ll wait for a pullback, and if the price reaches this level, there’s a good chance of a reaction upward because the buyers who accumulated longs here (visible on the Volume Profile) will likely defend this place and push the price up again.
Just like on the ES, there’s also a huge Fair Value Gap in this area — one large gap showing strong buyer momentum and determination. Our level is at the beginning of that gap, which makes it a strong area for a long trade. So, that’s why I want to take a long from 1.3952. Now, I’m just waiting for that pullback — if it happens, that’s the plan.
Now, let’s check out USD/CHF. Here, we have a 30-minute chart with a short level at 0.85051. This short setup is based on a Volume Profile pattern very similar to the previous examples. If you look at the Flexible Volume Profile, you can see a heavy-volume zone followed by a strong trend activity. This isn’t a Weekly Point of Control, but it’s still important — a heavy-volume zone from which sellers built short positions and then initiated the sell-off. My level is right at the beginning of that heavy-volume zone.
Also, notice there’s a large Fair Value Gap highlighted in red — a bearish gap. Because this is a short setup, I want to trade from that zone, the beginning of the bearish Fair Value Gap. The logic is the same: heavy volume followed by trend activity, confirmed by the Fair Value Gap. Now, we just need to wait for a pullback — if it occurs, we’ll take the trade from there.
That’s the plan.
If you want to learn more about Volume Profile trading, head over to my website — trader-dale.com. Click the “Trading Course and Tools” button, and it’ll take you to the page where I’m currently running a special Halloween Sale. Scroll down to see my educational and indicator packs — all of them are discounted until the end of the month. You’ll find the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money Pack. You can get them separately or as a special combo bundle at a massive discount. The Halloween Sale runs until the end of the month.
Before wrapping up, I’d like to announce the winner of last week’s contest. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for TradingView. Right now, you can see the name of the winner on your screen — congratulations!
Next week, I’ll run another contest. To participate, just leave a comment below this YouTube video. I’ll randomly pick one person next week to win this set of custom-made indicators.
Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you next time. Until then, happy trading!
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