Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Today we are going to cover three trading levels. One will be on the GBP/USD, then the next one will be on the USD/JPY, and the third one on the AUD/USD. So let’s check them out.
What you see before you is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. The chart is a 30-minute chart of the GBP/USD. What I want to talk about here is a resistance level—this one, which is at 1.37. As you can see, this level formed a couple of days ago. It is based on this very strong and aggressive sell-off. Let me now use the Volume Profile over the whole trend area—this trend area—and show you how the volumes were distributed, because this is important.
There is a significant volume cluster right here, right before the sell-off started. What this is telling us is that sellers were adding to their short positions here, and then they initiated this sell-off. This heavy volume zone represents a strong resistance because sellers are likely to be active here again. So if there’s a pullback to this level in the future, it’s likely that the sellers from here will initiate selling activity again and push the price downwards from this level.
So this is a Volume Profile setup, but it’s not the only setup this level is based on—it’s also based on a price action setup. Let me show you. If you look here, the price was reacting to this level in the past, which means it was a support. Because the price made this reaction here, and then it went past the support, turning that support into a new resistance. When support gets breached, it becomes resistance. So that’s the second setup.
As I was saying, we have a Volume Profile setup right here—those heavy volumes formed within the trend—that’s the first setup. And then the second setup is the support becoming resistance. Both setups align at this level, and they’re telling me that it is a strong resistance and there’s likely to be a reaction from it. So what we need to do now is just wait for the pullback, and if it occurs, then take the short from there.
Oh, and there’s one more additional thing I forgot to mention: a fair value gap. It’s highlighted in red. This is a huge fair value gap—that’s a concept from smart money trading. What I like to do is trade from the beginning of the fair value gap, which is exactly our level. This is the beginning of the fair value gap. My software highlights the fair value gaps automatically, and as you can see, it’s highlighted in red. So yes, we have three setups pointing to this level, and that essentially makes the level a strong one.
All right. So that’s the level I’m going to trade on the GBP/USD. Let’s now take a look at the next trading idea, which will be on the USD/JPY.
This is a 30-minute chart of the USD/JPY, and the level I want to show you is a support level at 143.86. This support is based on two things—well, actually three things. The first is my favorite Volume Profile setup, which is called the Volume Accumulation Setup. For this setup, you need to see a rotation like this and heavy volumes within that rotation. Then you need to see aggressive trend activity like this one—very aggressive buying activity. Then you wait for a pullback and take it from that level. Because buyers who were accumulating long positions here should become active again and push the price upwards. So it is those buyers we are counting on to become active and push the price up.
So that’s the first thing: the Volume Profile setup—the accumulation setup.
The second thing is a huge fair value gap. In this case, it is highlighted in green. This is the big fair value gap. Again, this comes from smart money concepts. This level is the beginning of the fair value gap, so that adds strength to our level.
The third thing is if you look at the weekly Volume Profile—that’s this volume profile showing how volumes were distributed throughout the whole previous week—the Point of Control of the whole week, the weekly Point of Control, is exactly at our level. That also adds strength to this level.
Now, there is one risky thing about this level. If you look at this low, it’s kind of a weak low. There’s probably some liquidity below those little swing lows. What could happen is that when the price makes a pullback to this level, the market could try to take out that liquidity, shooting past our support level. So that’s the risk of this level. It’s not a perfect level, but because we have three pretty strong setups pointing to it, I’m still willing to take the risk and go long from there. But I just wanted to mention that there’s also some risk involved because of this kind of weak low.
All right. That’s it for the USD/JPY.
The next level is on the AUD/USD. Here we have the same setup—the Volume Accumulation Setup—as on the USD/JPY. Let me show you. That was a rotation followed by a strong trend formed just recently. What you want to see are heavy volumes within the rotation. You want to use the Volume Profile like this to make sure there were heavy volumes within the rotation, which was followed by the trend. Then you trade from the beginning of that heavy volume zone, which is right here. The level is at 0.6547.
So when you see something like this, you just wait for the pullback, and when the price hits that level again, you go short. Chances are that sellers from here will become active and push the price downwards from this level again.
There’s one additional thing that adds strength to this level. If you look here, the price was reacting to this level in the past. That means it was a support. When the price blew past that support, it turned into a new resistance. So we have a Volume Profile setup, we have a support-becoming-resistance setup (which is a price action setup), and also, there’s a little fair value gap highlighted in red. You can see it here. That also adds strength to the level.
As I was saying, we just need to wait for the pullback and then take it from there.
Now, there’s one more thing I want to talk about, and it’s the upcoming macro news. This is the Forex Factory website. What I have here is the news filtered, so it only shows the most important macro news throughout the week. Today is Monday—no strong macro news is listed here. But if I scroll down a bit, there’s one important news event. It’s about tariffs, and President Trump is saying he’ll make an announcement about tariffs at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. So be very, very careful about that. Don’t place any intraday trades during this release, as I think the markets will be volatile at that time.
Now, if you guys are interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, and if you would like to trade alongside me every day, then I recommend visiting my website at traderdale.com. If you click “Trading Course and Tools” it will take you to this page. Currently, I’m running a special Independence Day discount, which means you can get my indicators and educational packs at a huge discount. You can get all those packs separately—the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money Pack. Or if you scroll down a bit, you can get all four of them for a massive discount—only $697 altogether.
And if you’re interested in joining us in the live trading room and trading with me and other prop traders every day, then I recommend clicking the button that says “FTA”—that stands for Funded Trader Academy. On this page, you can learn more about our offer, what we do, and how we can help you. If you like it, you can book a call, talk with us about the service, and decide whether or not it’s right for you.
Before I wrap the video up, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. Right now on your screen, you see the name of the person who won the contest. Congratulations to the winner!
And what I’ll do next is run another contest for the upcoming week. The only thing you need to do to participate is leave a comment below this video, which I’ll publish on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
So that’s about it. Thanks for watching the video, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
Comments
Post a Comment