Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here. Welcome to the new weekly trading ideas video. Today, we are going to talk about trading ideas on three trading pairs. We are going to cover the ES, then we will talk about the NQ, and the last one will be a swing trading idea on the GBP/USD. So let’s check them out.
What you see before you on the screen is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. The chart is the ES, 30-minute time frame, and what I want to show you is a newly formed support, which formed right here at 5974. It formed after the NFP news on Friday, which caused this strong buying activity. This was a clear sign of strong and aggressive buyers here.
When I see strong activity like this, what I also want to see is a heavy volume zone formed before that—which would be in this place. Now, if I use the Volume Profile here, the volume zone doesn’t stand out too much. As you can see, there’s a volume bump, but it’s not super significant. But in this case, I’m quite okay with that because it’s not only about the strength of the volumes, but also about the position of the volumes.
As I was saying, after this volume cluster got formed, there was this aggressive buying activity, showing me the aggressiveness of the buyers. There’s also a huge Fair Value Gap highlighted in green. The software I use highlights Fair Value Gaps in green, by the way. Fair Value Gaps are a concept from smart money trading, and I like to trade from the beginning of the Fair Value Gaps.
So even though the heavy volume zone is not as significant here—compared for example to the volumes over here—I still consider it a solid level to trade from because very aggressive buying activity started from there, forming this huge Fair Value Gap. I think this is a solid level to trade from. When the price makes it back, I expect a reaction like this.
Now, a very similar level is on the NQ. Only on the NQ, the volumes are more prominent. Let me show you. So this is the NQ—again, you are looking at a 30-minute chart. These two charts look pretty much the same. The NQ and the ES are correlated pretty heavily. Again, we have aggressive buying activity, and before that, there’s this rotation.
Let me now show you the volumes. As you can see, in this case, volumes are just heavier than on the ES, which is obviously better. The logic here is the same—there was this rotation, and those volumes were accumulated here. Then, aggressive buyers pushed the price upwards during the NFP news. Right now, the price is slowly getting back, and if it hits that level—the beginning of that heavy volume cluster—then chances are that there will be a reaction, as the buyers from here should defend this place and push the price upwards from there again. It appears that this place was important for them in the past.
Again, there is the Fair Value Gap highlighted in green right here. In a bullish scenario like this, I like to trade from the beginning of the Fair Value Gap—from this place. That’s the reason why I have the level exactly at this place. It is at 21,685, and right now I’m just waiting for that pullback. If it occurs, then I’ll go long from there.
Now, the ES and the NQ, as I was saying, are correlated, so I’ll be careful about placing both those trades at the same time. If the market makes the pullback at the same time on the NQ as well as on the ES, then I’m going to split my position into halves—just halve the volume for each of those trades—because they’re likely to be correlated. Very likely, both are going to be winners or both are going to be losers. But that’s only in the scenario when the price hits the level on the ES at the same time as it hits the level on the NQ.
So yeah, that’s that. Let me now switch over to my swing trading chart, which is this one. For the swing trades, I use the daily time frame, and the chart you see here is GBP/USD. I want to talk about a newly formed support—it’s here at 1.3324. It is based on a massive volume zone. Let me show you.
Those massive volumes were formed here as the buyers were pushing the price upwards. They stopped and rotated for a bit, accumulating long positions and forming this heavy volume zone. From there, the price continued to go up. So the idea behind this is: wait for a pullback to that heavy volume zone—the beginning of the heavy volume zone—and go long from there.
There is also a very nice confluence with the first deviation of the VWAP. For my swing trades, I use the yearly VWAP, which means it starts calculating from the beginning of the year. VWAP is this yellow line, and the first deviations are the gray lines—this one and this one. When the price is trending, it tends to react to the first deviations. As you can see, it started to trend here, and there was this reaction. In this case, it overshot the VWAP a bit, but still, there was some kind of reaction to it. Then again, this one. And right now, the first deviation is very close to my level.
So, if there is a pullback anytime soon and the first deviation of the VWAP is still around that level, then it will be a beautiful confluence, and the chances are that the price will react there like this. So that’s the plan. Right now, we just need to wait. And with those swing trades, I don’t really care how long I wait. The pullback could occur this week, next week, in a month, in two months, or even in a year. But the levels I draw on my chart are fixed, so even if this level gets hit in a year, I’m still going to trade it. I have a limit order, and I’m going to trade that no matter when it gets hit. That’s how I trade my swings.
Now, if you guys are interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, then head over to my website: trader-dale.com. If you click this button, it will take you to a page where you can browse my trading education and indicator packs. There’s the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money Pack. You can get them separately on this page, or scroll down a bit and get them discounted in one big bundle, where you get all four for one discounted price.
If you guys are interested in trading with me and other prop firm traders every day in a live trading room, then I recommend clicking this button that says “FTA” It will take you to a page where there’s a video that explains everything included in the Funded Trader Academy. That’s where we meet every day in the live trading rooms. If you find it interesting, you can book a one-on-one call there. We’ll walk you through everything, and then you can decide whether or not this is right for you.
Before I wrap the video up, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize of the contest was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. Right now, on your screen, you see the name of the person who won the contest. Congratulations to the winner!
What I’ll do next is another contest for next week. The only thing you need to do to participate is leave a comment below this video, which I’ll publish on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
That’s about it. Thanks for watching the video, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing you next time. Until then—happy trading!
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