Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Trader Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Before we jump into the trading ideas, let’s do a quick recap of the trades we had based on last week’s ideas. Right here is TradingView, where you can always find my predictions.
Let’s start with the ES: this was the prediction on the ES—we had a long level based on this volume cluster, and as you can see, there was a beautiful reaction right here, making it a winner.
The next trade was on the NQ, where we had a long level based on those volumes, and as you can see, it was also a winner with this beautiful reaction. There was also AUD/USD, set at this long level based on the volume cluster, but this one got missed; the price reacted a little bit sooner—three pips before the level, which is where it turned and made a strong reaction—so I decided to discard that level and not trade it anymore.
Now, let’s check out the new trading ideas and opportunities. What do you see before you? That’s a NinjaTrader 8 chart on a 30-minute time frame of the NQ. On the NQ, there was a pretty sharp sell-off on Friday, and within this sell-off a new resistance formed. When you see a strong trend like this, you want to look into the trend zone with the volume profile to identify heavy volume clusters, like this one, which represents strong activity from sellers adding to their short positions as the price drops. The level I have here is the beginning of that heavy volume cluster at 2,960, and if the price reaches this level, it’s likely there will be a reaction as the sellers defend this important area and push the price downwards. That’s the volume profile setup, and there’s also a price action setup: the area was support in the past, and when the price blew past that support, it turned into resistance—creating a nice combination of two trading setups. Additionally, we have a fair value gap from Smart Money Concepts, highlighted in red, with its level at the beginning of the gap; notice that this level is more or less the same as the long level we had on the NQ, which reacted strongly, and now we want to trade it from the other side.
Next, the trading idea on the ES shows a very similar level because the NQ and the ES often move in the same way, being heavily correlated. On this 30-minute chart of the ES, there was a strong sell-off, and by using the volume profile over the downtrend to examine the volume distribution, we can spot the heavy volume zone. The level I want to trade from—the resistance at the beginning of that heavy volume zone—is at 6,093, so I’m waiting for a pullback to go short from there. Similarly, there’s a fair value gap highlighted in red at its beginning, which adds strength to that level. Although there aren’t any additional confluences here, I believe the volume profile setup and fair value gap are more than enough to take the trade.
Now, the last trading idea is on USD/JPY. This 30-minute chart of USD/JPY shows strong resistance based on heavy volumes; the resistance is at 15,034, at the beginning of a heavy volume zone. As you can see, after this zone formed, there was a very aggressive sell-off that created a huge fair value gap, demonstrating the aggressiveness and determination of sellers building their positions. If there is a pullback, there’s a solid chance these sellers will defend the zone and push the price downwards. However, this level might seem a bit risky because the high is not very strong; many traders likely place their stop-loss orders at the highs of these candles, forming a stop-loss cluster, and sometimes when the price nears such a volume cluster, it can shoot quickly past it to capture that liquidity. This risk means that if the price pulls back to our level, it might not react but instead surge upward sharply to trigger those stop-loss orders. I’m willing to take that risk because I really like this level, but it’s important to be aware of it.
If you’re interested in learning more about volume profile, VAP, or order flow trading, head over to my website at trader-dale.com; click the “Trading Course and Tools” button to browse my trading education and indicators. There, you’ll find the volume profile pack, which teaches you everything about volume profile trading; the order flow pack, which focuses on day trading with order flow; and the VWAP pack, which focuses on VWAP trading. You can also get all three packs together in one discounted bundle. Additionally, if you want to trade alongside me every day in my live trading room, I recommend checking out the Funded Trader Academy on the site—click the corresponding button to visit the academy page, where a video explains everything in more detail, and if you’re interested, you can book a one-on-one call to discuss whether this service is right for you. Before I wrap up the video, I’d like to announce the winner of a contest we held last time—the prize was my custom-made volume profile and VAP indicators for the TradingView platform—and right now on your screen you see the name of the winner. Congratulations to the winner! Next, I’ll hold another contest next week; to participate, simply leave a comment below the video on YouTube, and next week I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators. That’s about it—thanks for watching the video, and I’ll look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
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