Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. What you see before you is the NinjaTrader platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. I’d like to start with a little recap of the levels from last week’s video.
What you see before you is the EUR/USD chart on a 30-minute time frame. In here, we had a short level, which was right here. It was based on these heavy volumes. So this was the short level, and the stop loss was placed here, based on the heavy volume zone. As you probably know, I like to place the stop loss behind heavy volume zones. This was the stop loss, and as you can see, the price hit that level in a very aggressive spike. The stop loss did not get hit, not even here, but at the time, it looked very bad. Then the price went back to break even, and that’s where I quit the trade. The reason was the upcoming macro news—specifically, the CPI on the USD. This red candle here was caused by the macro news. I was lucky enough to exit the trade around break even before the news, so it ended up not so bad.
The next trade was on the NQ, and this was actually a winner. That prediction was based on these heavy volumes. Again, we are looking at a 30-minute chart. We had a heavy volume zone here, followed by a strong sell-off, which defined our level. So this was the short level, and as you can see, there was a very nice reaction to it. The reaction occurred pretty soon after I published the video. The level got hit on Monday, and from that moment, it started to move downward, so this was a nice trade.
The last one was on the EUR/AUD. Again, you are looking at a 30-minute chart of the EUR/AUD. We had a short level based on heavy volumes. This was the short level, and it still hasn’t been hit.
So to recap: one winner on the NQ, one break-even trade on the EUR/USD, and one level that has not been hit yet, meaning it is still viable to trade.
Now, let’s talk about some current levels. Let’s start with the ES. On the ES, I want to highlight this long level at 6,130. It is based on strong buying activity that occurred on Thursday. If you look at the volume distribution within this strong trend activity, the most notable feature is this volume cluster. This volume cluster represents buyers who were adding to their long positions as the price was pushing upward. This makes it an important area for the buyers, and if there’s a pullback, there is a strong chance of a reaction, as those buyers should become active again and push the price back up.
Apart from this Volume Profile setup, there is also a Fair Value Gap, highlighted in green. This is the Fair Value Gap from Smart Money Concepts, and its beginning is right here at this level, adding further strength to the level. Another factor I like here is that the price has reacted to this general area in the past. There were a couple of reactions—not exactly to the level, but to this general area—meaning it was a resistance in the past. When the price broke past the resistance, it turned into support. So this is now a support zone, which nicely aligns with the heavy volume cluster. All these factors indicate that this is a strong level to trade from. Now, we just need to wait for a pullback and take it from there.
Today is a holiday in the U.S., so I don’t expect this level to be hit. I don’t anticipate strong volatility in the indices today, but that doesn’t really matter. Markets have a very good memory, so even if this level gets hit in a few days or even a week or two, it will still be a strong level to trade from.
Now, let’s move on to the NQ, which has a very similar level. This is a 30-minute chart of the NQ, showing strong buying activity. Let me zoom out a bit. As you can see, the chart looks very similar to the ES. The level is at 2,968. If I show you how the volumes are distributed here, you can see that this was the heaviest volume zone in the up move.
Again, we have a Fair Value Gap—actually, three of them. There’s one here, one here, and one here. However, when Fair Value Gaps are stacked like this, I treat them as one large Fair Value Gap. Our level is at the beginning of that Fair Value Gap. So, the volume cluster is reason number one, the Fair Value Gap is reason number two, and reason number three is this strong past reaction to the level. This means it was a resistance, and when the price broke past it, it turned into support. Just like on the ES, we have three strong reasons to trade from this level. Now, we just need to wait for a pullback, and if the price reaches this area, we can take it from there.
Now, let’s look at AUD/USD. In this case, I want to highlight a strong support level at 0.6324. If you examine the volume distribution within this uptrend zone that formed on Friday, you can see that the heaviest volume zone is right here. This is where buyers were active as they pushed the price upward. The logic here is the same as with the other trading ideas—when there’s a pullback, the buyers from this area should defend it and push the price back up.
Let me zoom in a bit. I want to show you that, in the past, the price reacted to this level—not exactly to the level itself, but to this general zone. Supports and resistances are not exact levels; they are zones. This was a strong resistance in the past, and when the price broke past it, the level turned into support. There was another reaction to this level here, where it acted as resistance again. Eventually, the price broke past it, turning the level into support. Now, it is a support zone that aligns nicely with the volume cluster. We just need to wait for the pullback and trade from there.
If you’re interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, head over to my website, Trader-Dale.com. If you click the button labeled Trading Course and Tools, it will take you to a page where you can check out my trading education and custom-made indicators.
The Volume Profile Pack will teach you everything about Volume Profile trading. The Order Flow Pack focuses on day trading with Order Flow. The VWAP Pack focuses on VWAP trading. There are videos explaining each pack in detail. If you’re interested in getting all three together at a discount, scroll down a bit and you can get them for only $697.
If you’d like to trade with me and other prop firm traders in a live trading room every day, click the Funded Trader Academy button. There’s a video explaining everything in detail, and if you think this might be right for you, you can book a one-on-one call to discuss whether this service is a good fit.
Before wrapping up, I’d like to announce the winner of last week’s contest. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. Right now, you can see the name of the winner on your screen. Congratulations!
I’m also running another contest for next week. To participate, just leave a comment below this video on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win a set of these custom-made indicators.
That’s all for today. Thanks for watching, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, Happy Trading!
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