Video Transcript:
Hello everyone. It’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Today I’m going to do a swing trading special. That means we’re going to take a look at swing trades, which are actually my favorite kind of trades. I like to trade the swings because they are not too time-consuming, they are not that affected by macro news, and they also have a very nice win rate. So let’s check out the charts.
What you see before you is a daily chart of GBP/USD. And since we’re going to talk about swing trading, we’re going to look at those daily charts. All right. So this is my swing trading layout using the daily time frame. This profile on the left is a yearly volume profile, which shows how volumes are distributed throughout the whole year. Then the yellow line here is a VWAP, and the grey lines are the first deviations of this yearly VWAP.
The level I want to show you here is a resistance, this one, and the resistance is at 1.3310. That resistance is based on a heavy volume cluster. Let me show you with the flexible volume profile. This is the volume cluster it is based on, and that volume cluster formed when the price was dropping here in this downtrend. You can either identify that volume cluster like this, or you can even move the profile like this. As you can see, the volume cluster is still there, still important, and it shows a place where sellers were adding to their short positions in this newly formed downtrend.
So we have the volume cluster within the trend. That’s the first setup. The second setup we have here is a Smart Money Concept setup, and it is a fair value gap right here. This is a fair value gap, and our level is the beginning of that fair value gap. In a short-trade scenario, I like to trade from the beginning of a fair value gap.
Right now, I’m waiting for a pullback, and when the price hits this level, I’m going to go short from there. It doesn’t need to be soon. I’m okay waiting because this is swing trading. This is basically a game of patience. It could take a week or two months, so I don’t really care. But when this level gets hit, I’m going short.
Since this is swing trading, you also need to adjust stop-loss and take-profit placement accordingly. In this case, the stop will be here, which is around 60 pips. You need to let the trades breathe. And the take profit needs to be at least risk-reward ratio 1:1. So if the stop is here, the take profit needs to be at least somewhere in here, so you are trading with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
So that’s the short on GBP/USD. Let me now switch to another daily chart, and this one is going to be NZD/CAD. What I want to show you here on NZD/CAD is a resistance. Let me zoom this in a little bit.
The resistance is right here, this line, and it is at 0.8016. This resistance is based on a heavy volume zone that formed within this rotation right here. Those heavy volumes represent a place where sellers were active, adding to their short positions as they were pushing the price downwards like this. So this is an important zone for sellers, and they’re likely to defend it. I like to trade from the beginnings of heavy volume zones, which is why I have the level here. This is the beginning of the heavy volume zone, and it is also a place where the price reacted in the past.
See here — that means this was a support in the past, because the price made that strong reaction here. When the price blew past that support, it turned into a resistance. So this is a price-action setup confirming the volume-profile setup. It would also be good if the first deviation of the VWAP dropped a little bit like this because that would add more strength to the level.
In either case, I’m waiting for a pullback. If it occurs, I’m going short from here. The stop for this trade will be at the high of this small rotation area, so it’s going to be here, and the take profit at least at risk-reward 1:1 somewhere in here.
All right. So that’s NZD/CAD. Now let’s check the next trading idea, which will be on USD/CAD. What you see before you is a daily chart of USD/CAD, and the level I want to talk about here is a support. This blue line is the support at 1.3954.
This support is based on a volume-profile setup called the rejection setup. First step: you need to see a strong rejection of lower prices like this. This is a place where selling activity turned aggressively into buying activity. We have a very nice pin bar here, which is also a sign of aggressive buyers. And we also need to see a significant volume cluster within that rejection, which in this case is right here. This volume cluster shows where buyers stepped in, started to buy, and reversed that sell-off into buying activity.
This volume cluster is the most important place within this rejection, and I’m trading from the beginning of that volume cluster at 1.3954. When the price hits this level, I’m going long because chances are that the buyers in this cluster are going to defend this place and push the price upwards again.
Additionally, there’s a fair value gap right here — a bullish fair value gap that begins exactly at our level. That adds more strength to the level.
The stop-loss for this trade will be here at the low of this pin bar, and the take profit needs to be at least somewhere in here to keep a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. So that’s how I plan to trade this. I’m just waiting for that pullback, and when it occurs, it’s long from there.
If you want to learn more about volume profile trading, head over to my website at trader-dale.com. If you click the button “Trading Course and Tools” it will take you to this page. If you scroll down, you can get my trading education and trading indicator packs: the Volume Profile pack, Order Flow pack, VWAP pack, and Smart Money pack. You can get them separately or scroll down to get a combo pack that includes all the packs for a discounted price.
Before I wrap up the video, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. And right now on your screen, you see the name of the person who won the contest. Congratulations to the winner.
I’ll do another contest for next week. The only thing you need to do to participate is leave a comment below the video I’ll publish on YouTube, and next week I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
Thanks for watching the video, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
Comments
Post a Comment