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ES Breakdown Explained: Aggressive Selling + Volatility Spike (Live Trading Room)


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Video Transcript:

 

Okay, so yesterday we had this bearish outside day. It did not close through yet, but it was still very potent, very powerfully bearish as we closed through this daily gap here that was open from way back on October 20th. That closed through, and we had continuation selling to the downside today, closing pretty strong to the downside as well. Pretty choppy price action throughout the course of the day today. I think the ATR on a 10-minute candle got cranked up to about 18 points per 10-minute candle, so that just tells you a little bit about the speed behind the day. We still have that continuation selling; the bears are still in control, pretty convincingly still throughout the day.

So, let’s take it from the top here. You can see that even on the daily, we have closed through that passive trend stream yesterday with that aggressive selling to the downside. Let’s go to the hourly chart here and take a little look at the internals. Coming into the day session, we had the Asian session sell-off, the London session opening pop-up, and then that sell-off carrying on and continuing to the downside, as this overnight high right through here held up and did not get broken through. We had that opening run to the downside, which was pretty rough, pretty harsh, tagging target two nearly to the tick at 6595 before it bounced back to the upside. We saw a little trace of some bulls in here making their presence known around that 10:00 hour rotation, before all that took place.

Let’s go to the 10-minute chart. I’ll show you what I was looking at. As I mentioned in my video this morning, if prices just go screaming off the open to the downside, it’s going to have to do it without me. I caught this little retrace back through here around that 9:20–9:30 area. We came back tagging up through here, and this is that broken down on a two-minute order flow chart. You can see price just come screaming down here, no entry to really be had throughout this entire movement. Then we start to build a little bit of a base. We pop back up to retest that bearish-below level at 6635, and we stalled out and ran out of buyers up here. You can see the smaller numbers up here; price is failing one, two, three, four times. Close of this bar, this doji bar here at the POC up at the top. I went ahead and took a shot at this thing at the low. It rallied, then tagged on the way down and broke all the way down, about a 14-point run here to 6615. I actually could have held this one as it went down and tagged that target two, but did not find another entry like that throughout the course of the day. So that was my run to the downside heading into tomorrow.

Let’s focus on the weekly here. Let’s go to the weekly chart for just a second, and I’m going to throw on the clouds. Now today kind of notches in that we are pushing to the downside, getting a little bit of the body of the week. I know we’re only two days into the week, so this can all get erased, but we are now pushing to the downside of this aggressive bullish market trend stream to the upside. We already broke through this bullish trend channel here. You can see that downside going all the way back. Things are starting to get pretty ugly to the downside. The next swing point is going to be this prior week low from a few weeks agoone, two, three, four, five weeks ago nowand then six weeks ago. If we start tagging down through here, I wouldn’t be surprised if we come down and hit it. If we start closing through thatif the week closes through therethings have the possibility to get awfully ugly as we move forward.

Hey everyone, it’s Dale here. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you’d like to trade alongside me and our team of prop firm funded traders every day, then click the link below the video and hop aboard. We’re looking forward to trading with you.

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