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EUR/USD Volume Profile Analysis (+ Trade Recap)-12th September 2024


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Video Transcript:

Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with new day trading analysis. Today, I’d like to talk about the EUR/USD, but before that, just a quick recap of a trade on the USD/CAD based on the prediction I sent you yesterday. I hope you guys saw it.

The level from yesterday’s prediction on USD/CAD was based on the 30-minute chart, focusing on those heavy volumes followed by strong buying activity. The level we had was here, marked by this blue line, and this is where the reaction occurred. Unfortunately, the reaction took place during macro news, which made it a bit risky, so I wasn’t trading due to that. However, as you can see, the reaction was very nice—spot on.

If you remember from the video, I mentioned this zone, the failed auction zone, and said it was likely the price would test the liquidity above this zone, which is exactly what happened. The price moved upwards aggressively, tested the liquidity above the zone, and then moved downwards.

Now, when there’s a failed auction like this, where a couple of candles are at the same price level, it’s referred to as a failed auction. When the price approaches this level, it tends to push past it to test the liquidity above and create a successful auction instead. So, this was a failed auction, but the price tested it and made a successful auction here. That’s just what I wanted to show you about yesterday’s trade.

Now, let’s switch to the EUR/USD. Let me show you the new trading level.

This is a 30-minute chart of the EUR/USD. The level I want to talk about is at 1.1040, based on a Volume Profile setup. It shows heavy volumes here, followed by very strong and aggressive selling activity. What this suggests is that sellers were building up short positions here and then pushed the price aggressively downward. The level I’ve marked is the beginning of the heavy volume zone, which also aligns with the beginning of a fair value gap. This fair value gap is from the Smart Money concept, and I like to trade from the beginning of such gaps, which is right here.

As you can see, this aligns nicely with the heavy volume zone, so we have a combination of two trading setups. This means that when the price returns to this level, chances are we’ll see a reaction, as the sellers who were active here will likely defend this area and push the price downward again.

Now, all we need to do is wait for the pullback. When it happens, you can either take the trade at the first touch or use order flow to time your trade entry and exits more precisely.

One more thing I forgot to mention is that another factor adding strength to this level is the weekly Point of Control. This means the heaviest volumes traded this week were at this level, and as you can see, it aligns with our level, which is another reason why I like this resistance zone.

Keep in mind that the weekly Point of Control is just a few pips above the level we’re discussing. This is a resistance zone, not an exact price point where the price should react. Personally, I like to trade from the beginning of the heavy volume zone and the fair value gap, but remember, it’s a zone, not a precise level.

One important thing to be very, very careful about today is the macro news. There’s the main refinancing rate, monetary policy statement, PPI, and the ECB press conference. These events strongly affect both the Euro and the Dollar, and this news could trigger significant volatility. You definitely don’t want to trade short-term setups like the one I’ve shown during such news or in the post-news volatility.

So, be cautious around the news, but otherwise, the level I’ve shown is pretty strong to trade from.

If you’d like to learn more about Volume Profile, VWAP, and order flow trading, head over to my website, Trader-Dale.com. If you click this button, it will take you to my education page and custom-made trading tools. Here, you’ll find the Volume Profile pack, which teaches everything about Volume Profile trading, and below that, there’s the Order Flow pack, which covers everything about day trading with order flow.

There are videos available that go into more detail about what you’ll receive. If you scroll down a bit, there’s a special combo pack where you can get both the Volume Profile pack and the Order Flow pack at a massively discounted price.

Alright, that’s all for now. Thanks for watching the video, and I’ll look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading!

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