Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here. Welcome to the new weekly trading ideas video. Today we are going to cover EUR/USD, then USD/CAD, and then NZD/CHF. The markets were quite volatile on Friday because there was a speech by Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Fed, and he signaled that a rate cut may come as soon as September. That’s why the markets were so wild and volatile on Friday, and today we are going to cover that as well, because the trading ideas are mostly based on the aggressive buying and selling activity that occurred on Friday. So, let’s check it out.
Let’s start with EUR/USD. On your screen, this is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. This is a 30-minute chart of EUR/USD, and the trading level that formed on Friday and that I want to cover is this one. It is a support at 1.1611, and as you can see, it is at the base of very aggressive buying activity. This was a reaction to Powell’s speech where he signaled there might be a rate cut in September. It’s not just about the start of this strong buying activity, but also about the volume zone that occurred before that.
If you look into this whole zone with Volume Profile, you can see there is a significant volume cluster here. If I extend the profile a bit more to the left so it covers the whole rotation, you can see that the heaviest volumes in this area were here. This is a very significant volume cluster, and you can see that from this volume cluster the aggressive buying activity started. If there is a pullback to it—and it doesn’t need to be today or tomorrow, it could be next week—but when there is a pullback to that level, there should be a buying reaction. The buyers who accumulated long positions here and pushed the price upwards should become active again and push the price upwards from this place. As you can see on the Volume Profile, this is an important zone, so they are likely to be active here. What we need to do now is just wait, and if there is a pullback, then take the long from there.
One more thing I forgot to mention: there is also a huge Fair Value Gap, highlighted in green. This is from Smart Money Concepts, and I like to trade from the beginning of the Fair Value Gap, which is exactly at 1.1611.
All right, so that’s the logic behind this level. Now let’s check out the next trading idea, which will be on USD/CAD. In this case, the scenario is very similar to EUR/USD, only reversed. This is a short trade scenario. Here we can see a very sharp sell-off that also occurred as a reaction to Powell’s statement. If I use Volume Profile to cover the area before the rotation, you can see there is a significant volume cluster from which this very aggressive selling activity started.
This setup is called the Volume Accumulation Setup: you want to see heavy volumes accumulated, and from there strong trend activity. Then you wait for the pullback and trade from that heavy volume zone. In this case, the short is from 1.3914. As you can see, there’s also a huge Fair Value Gap. In this case, it’s bearish, and the gap begins right where our level is. So, we have a huge Fair Value Gap signaling aggression of strong sellers, and we also have this volume cluster, both pointing us to this level. Right now, we just need to wait for the pullback, and if it occurs, take the short from there.
This is exactly the same setup as on EUR/USD. Now let’s check the next trading idea, which is NZD/CHF. This is a 30-minute chart, and here we also have the Volume Accumulation Setup: a small rotation followed by strong trend activity. We are still looking at the 30-minute chart, my favorite timeframe for intraday analysis. What we need to see are heavy volumes before strong trend activity. These are the heavy volumes, and this is the trend activity.
With this setup, you wait for the pullback and then trade from the beginning of the heavy volume zone or from the Point of Control. In this case, I prefer trading from the beginning of that heavy volume zone because it nicely aligns with a Fair Value Gap, highlighted in red. The Fair Value Gap begins right at 0.4760.
That’s what this level is based on. Again, we just need to wait for the pullback. If the price hits this level, strong sellers from here should become active again and push the price downwards from this place.
Now, if you’re interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, head over to my website, Trader-Dale.com, and click the “Trading Course and Tools” button. There you can browse my trading education and trading packs. There’s the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money Pack. You can get those packs separately, or scroll down to get them all in one bundle at a discounted price.
Before I wrap up, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for TradingView. On your screen now, you see the name of the winner—congratulations!
I’ll do another contest for next week. To participate, just leave a comment below this video when I publish it on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
That’s it for today. Thanks for watching, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
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