Video Transcript:
Okay, so we have some new all-time highs on the S&P 500 here. Let’s recap the week. The Fed induced a big run-up by putting rate cuts on the table. Monday brought a small retracement and consolidation. On Tuesday, we dipped between these critical levels. There’s a PC from the prior week right here. We dipped into this daily inversion gap, ripped back through, held it, bounced, and have been grinding ever since. Through Tuesday’s session, Wednesday’s session, and yesterday, there was this pattern of retracement and recovery. We had a little of that again today—retracement, recovery—and finally, in the PM session, we broke to those all-time highs and pushed into newer, deeper highs, missing target one by just a couple of points.
Let’s flip over to the NQ. It’s a slightly different story there. NQ had similar price action from Friday: Monday retracement, dip and recovery, another dip and recovery, and then another one today. Finally, we had that expansion above this little range high. We cleared this daily gap, and now we have some swing highs potentially in play to the upside for NASDAQ tomorrow. I’d be watching that closely. We also have the PCE report coming in tomorrow.
Back to the ES for a second. On the hourly, you can see this was the Nvidia earnings reaction. Apparently, the market looked at that unfavorably yesterday, and it was quite a wild ride. We essentially retraced the entirety of the day’s run and then some. The overnight session recovered that, with Asia and London expanding higher. Then we had some post-London chop right into the open, followed by a nice dip and rip back to the upside. It was quite a grind working our way through here, with really only a couple of trades worth taking.
The last trade of the day was a bull flag breakout. We poked through on the 11:30 candle with some aggression that quickly faded, then came right back, built a small bull flag, and broke on the 12:40 candle. It held, and the buy stop went up at the top. From there, we just grinded higher for a few points. I took partials at 6515 and fully exited at 6517, even though it squeezed more into the end of the day. But since we were marching into all-time highs and going into that last half-hour, I decided to bail—partly out of boredom because it took forever, and partly because of the wild action in that final half-hour. That was essentially the trade.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, let’s check the weekly chart. There’s been a lot of back-and-forth near these all-time highs. We set the high during the week of the 11th. Then last week we dipped and recovered, with Friday being the recovery. So far this week, we’ve seen another dip and recovery. We’ll see what holds tomorrow and where the market wants to go. My assessment from the beginning of the week was: if we can hold this level or recover through it and the PC, then likely we’ll retest those all-time highs. If we break and hold above them, then likely we’ll push further and test higher levels.
The PCE report in the morning will be key. If we can either hold or recover the all-time high, there’s a chance we’ll hit this weekly extension target tomorrow. It’s within range—only about 30 to 35 points away—so that’s realistic. We’ll see what happens. That’s how I see it.
I’ll see you in the morning for my session. If you can’t catch that, you can grab my market preview in the morning for both ES and NQ, where I’ll cover the relevant levels of the day. Have a good night, thanks.
Hey everyone, it’s Dale here. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you’d like to trade alongside me and our team of prop firm-funded traders every day, then click the link below this video and hop aboard. We’re looking forward to trading with you.
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