Video Transcript:
Hey everyone, it’s Dale here. Welcome to the new weekly trading ideas video. Today, we are going to cover three trading ideas. We are going to cover the ES, then the EUR/USD, and then the GBP/USD. Since the last time we met, the volatility has increased significantly, so we are also going to look at how to approach that and how to adjust your trading. All right, so let’s check out the charts.
The first trading idea is on the ES. What you see before you is the NinjaTrader 8 platform, and this is a 30-minute chart of the ES. What I want to show you is a support that formed here a couple of days ago at 5075. If you look at the place where the support got formed, you can see that it is at the beginning of a very strong buying activity—this strong up move. This up move is telling us there were aggressive buyers who were pushing the price aggressively upwards. If you look at the volumes before that strong buying activity, then you can see that there was this heavy volume cluster here. This tells us that big players were accumulating long positions there and then initiated the strong buying activity. My level is at the beginning of that heavy volume zone—it is at the beginning of the zone where the buyers were active. If there’s a pullback, I think those buyers will become active again and will want to push the price upwards from there again.
Now, you can also notice there’s a huge fair value gap highlighted in green—this whole zone. I like to trade from the beginning of the fair value gap, which in this case is right here. This is the beginning of the fair value gap. So yeah, that’s the plan. Right now, I’m just waiting for that pullback. I’m waiting with a limit order, and when the price reaches this level, if there’s no macro news around that time, then I’m going to go into a long trade from there.
All right, so that’s for the ES. Let’s now check out the next trading idea. The next one will be on the EUR/USD. What you see before you is the EUR/USD 30-minute chart. On the euro, there’s a pretty steep uptrend and increased volatility. What I want to do is trade significant volume clusters that got formed within that uptrend zone. If I use the volume profile like this, it shows me the most important volume zones—we have this one, this one, this one, this one, and this one. Now, some of them are better than others, and it’s not just about the volumes—it’s also about confluences. The levels which you can see here that I have automatically printed on my charts are this one and this one. The first one is at 1.1195, and the second one is at 1.1084.
The reasoning behind the first one—this one—is this significant volume cluster. This volume cluster tells me that buyers were adding to their long positions here in this little rotation, as the price was going higher and higher. So they were adding to long positions here, and when there’s a pullback, there’s a chance that those guys will become active again and will want to push the price upwards. As you can see, this level is also an open drive. That means that on Friday, the day opened here, and from that moment, without any pullback, the price just went upwards. So this is an open drive—another thing that adds strength to our level.
Now, since I was talking about the increased volatility, the stop loss for this trade will have to be right here. The reason is that this place is behind the heavy volume zone—this heavy volume zone—and below this little swing point. That’s how I place my stop loss orders. So this will be the stop loss. If you look at the distance from the trade entry point, it is 40 pips. Normally, that would be quite a lot for EUR/USD, but since the volatility has increased so much, I would say that it is quite fine. So placing the stop behind the volume zone—that’s the logical place for the stop loss. And this being 40 pips is quite fine by me because of the increased volatility.
Now, if we talk about the lower level—this support at 1.1084—it is based on this volume cluster. It is not the biggest volume cluster on the chart, but the great thing about it is that there were also huge reactions here and here to this level in the past—to this exact level. That means this was a resistance that turned into support when the price broke past that level. This is additional confirmation of the level, and for that reason, it doesn’t matter that the volume cluster isn’t the biggest on the chart—because of this confluence, it makes the volume cluster stronger. So if there’s a pullback to this level, then there should be a reaction, as the buyers who pushed through this resistance in the past and who made those volumes here on the volume profile should push the price upwards again from there.
Now, since we mentioned the stop loss placement in the previous level, let’s do that again. In this trading idea and in this second long level, we want to place the stop behind the heavy volume zone, which would be here. Let me print a straight line—right here. In this case, it would be 30 pips. A 30-pip stop loss. Again, a bigger stop loss than usual for the euro, but given the increased volatility, I would say this is a must. We need to adapt.
So this is the euro, and let’s now check out the next trading idea. The next one is on the GBP/USD. This is the GBP/USD 30-minute chart. Again, we have a strong uptrend, very similar to the euro. The level that I want to show you—and the level I want to trade—is this one: 1.3160. The reason for this level is that there is a heavy volume zone. Let me show you—heavy volume zone within this uptrend—which is telling me that buyers were active here. Bars on the volume profile are right here. That’s the main reason for that long level.
Another reason is that there’s a fair value gap highlighted in green. This fair value gap is from smart money concepts, and as I was saying, I like to trade from the beginning of the fair value gap—which is almost at our level.
Now regarding the stop loss placement—again, I want to place the stop behind the heavy volume zone, and also behind a swing point if possible. In this case, we consider this whole area as the heavy volume zone the level is based on, and below this heavy volume zone is the stop loss. I will place it right at the lowest point of this swing point, and it will be at 1.2984—32 pips. Again, normally that would be quite a lot for GBP/USD, but because the volatility has increased significantly, I would say that’s quite fine.
All right, so that’s about that long level on the GBP/USD. Right now, we just need to wait for the pullback, and if it occurs, then take it from there.
Now, if you guys are interested in joining us and trading with me and other prop traders every day, then I recommend visiting my website. It’s at trader-dale.com, and if you click the “FTA” button—that stands for Funded Trader Academy—it will take you to a page where you can check out a video where I explain everything in more detail. If you want to learn more and would like us to walk you through the service in a one-on-one call, you can book your call right there. We’ll walk you through the service, and then you can decide whether or not it’s right for you.
If you’d prefer self-study rather than day-to-day meetings in the live trading room, then I recommend checking the trading course and tools. On this page, you can browse my most popular trading education packs and indicator packs—that’s the Volume Profile, Order Flow, VWAP, and Smart Money packs. You can get them separately or as a discounted bundle. If you scroll down a bit, you can find them all in a discounted bundle right there—for a discounted price.
Before I wrap the video up, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. Right now, on your screen, you can see the name of the person who won the contest—congratulations to the winner!
What I’ll do next is launch another contest for next week. The only thing you need to do to participate is leave a comment below this video, which I’ll publish on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
That’s about that. Thanks for watching the video, and I’ll be looking forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
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