Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Today, we are going to look into three trading ideas: the ES, which is futures for the S&P 500, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD.
Let’s start with the ES. What you see before you is the ES chart on a 30-minute time frame. The platform I’m using is NinjaTrader 8, and the indicators are my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. On this 30-minute chart of the ES, you can see that on Friday, there was quite aggressive buying activity right here. Now, before this strong buying activity, there was a rotation. When you see this, you want to use the Volume Profile to analyze the rotation that was followed by that trend. You want to see how the volumes were distributed because very often, this will present a strong trading level.
What you see here is how the volumes were distributed. My support level, from which I want to trade, is at 5882. As you can see, the heaviest volumes throughout the whole day were traded here—this is the daily Point of Control. My level is just a little bit before that, and I believe that if there is a pullback, there will be a reaction from the buyers who were building up their long positions in this area, as seen on the Volume Profile. This is basically the beginning of that heavy volume zone, and from there, I expect a reaction.
Additionally, besides the daily Point of Control, there is also a pretty big Fair Value Gap, highlighted in green. This Fair Value Gap comes from Smart Money Concepts, and here is the beginning of the gap. I like to trade from the beginning of Fair Value Gaps, especially when they align with a heavy volume zone like this. Essentially, the chart tells us that there was a rotation in which buyers were accumulating long positions, followed by a strong rejection of lower prices, showing the aggressiveness of the buyers, and then strong buying activity, confirming their dominance. When you see this, you want to wait for the pullback and take the trade from there.
Alright, that’s for the ES. Now, let’s check out the next chart: EUR/USD.
This is a 30-minute chart of EUR/USD. When I was doing my analysis last night, I was planning to go short from this level due to the heavy volumes formed here. However, as you can see, the market opened with a gap, so I did not take that trade. The gap, however, created a new viable level, and that new level is a long from 1.0376.
This long setup is based on a strategy that I like to trade when there’s an opening gap. This strategy has a high win rate and works like this: You need to see an opening gap, like the one here, and a heavy volume zone before the gap. Very often, the price will soon close the gap, like this, and when it does, it will hit the heavy volume zone. This is the beginning of the heavy volume zone, and when the price fills the gap and hits this level, that’s where you want to enter your trade. In this case, it would be a long from here.
This setup is not as common in Forex, which I primarily trade, because gaps are rare. However, when Trump was president, gaps became more frequent, allowing us to trade this strategy more often. So, we wait for the pullback—when the price reaches the beginning of the heavy volume zone and fills the gap—then take the long trade from there. The chances of a reaction are high.
Now, let’s move on to GBP/USD.
On GBP/USD, I want to talk about a resistance level at 1.12666. As you can see, there was a rotation here, and from that rotation, an aggressive sell-off occurred, forming a Fair Value Gap. My level is at the beginning of the Fair Value Gap, similar to what we saw on ES, but in this case, it is a short, not a long.
We have a Fair Value Gap starting from here, along with a heavy volume zone. This suggests that sellers were accumulating short positions in this area before pushing the price aggressively downward, creating this large Fair Value Gap. When there is a pullback, chances are that there will be a reaction, as sellers from this level are likely to defend the area and push the price downward again.
Let me show you one more thing—a setup that played out very nicely. It was a level based on these heavy volumes. This short level was a strong confluence setup because it combined a heavy volume cluster and the first deviation of VWAP (the gray line), which both met at this level. Also, if I extend this level, the price reacted to this zone in the past, meaning it was a previous support. When the price broke through that support, it turned into a new resistance.
So, three independent setups indicated this was a strong resistance, and as you can see, the price reacted beautifully.
If you’re interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, head over to my website, Trader-Dale.com. Click the button that says “Trading Course & Tools” and it will take you to a page where you can browse my trading education and custom-made indicators.
There’s the Volume Profile pack, which will teach you everything about Volume Profile trading. Then there’s the Order Flow pack, focusing on day trading with Order Flow. Lastly, there’s the VWAP pack, which teaches everything about VWAP trading. Each of these packs includes my custom-made indicators—Volume Profile, Order Flow, and VWAP.
If you scroll down a bit, you can get all three packs together in one bundle for a massively discounted price.
Also, if you’re interested in joining me and other prop firm traders in the live trading room—where we trade together daily—click the button that says “FTA” (Funded Trader Academy). On this page, you can book a one-on-one call with us, and we’ll walk you through the service to help you decide if it’s right for you.
Before I wrap up the video, I’d like to announce the winner of last week’s contest. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the TradingView platform. Right now, you can see the name of the contest winner on your screen—congratulations!
I’m also running another contest for next week. To participate, simply leave a comment below this video on YouTube. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
That’s all for now. Thanks for watching, and I’ll see you next time. Until then, happy trading!
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