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Volume Profile Trading Ideas – Trading the NFP news


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Video Transcript:

Hello, everyone! It’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Just a quick note before we jump into the charts—I’m currently running a special Halloween sale. If you go to my website and click the button that says Trading Course and Tools, it will take you to a special page where you can get my best educational and indicator packs at a massive discount. There’s the Volume Profile Pack, which will teach you everything about volume profile trading, the Order Flow Pack for focusing on day trading with order flow, and the newest one, the VWAP Pack, which will teach you how to trade with VWAP. You can get all these discounted here, or you can scroll down a bit and get a massive discount if you buy all three together. That means the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, and VWAP Pack all together for $597. So, that’s the Halloween special. Now, let me jump to the charts, and let’s start with the EUR/USD.

What you see before you is the EUR/USD 30-minute chart. On the chart, you see my custom-made volume profile and VWAP indicators, which are also part of the packs I just mentioned. On this 30-minute chart of EUR/USD, I want to talk about this newly formed resistance level at 1.1026. It is based on macro news—specifically, the NFP macro news—because on Friday, there was the NFP, one of the strongest economic events currently affecting USD strength. This strong selloff here was caused by this macro news. If you use a volume profile, let’s check this daily volume profile stretched over one day. You can see that there were heavy volumes in this rotation, and then this strong selloff started, indicating that sellers were building up their short positions here before manipulating the price to shoot downwards.

This is a very important area for sellers. If the price comes back to this level, it is very likely that sellers will want to defend it and push the price downwards again. This zone is crucial for the sellers, as you can see when you look at the volumes. Therefore, we need to wait for that pullback, and when the price reaches this level—if it does—go short from there. If you look at this red area, the highlighted section, it represents a huge fair value gap. This is a concept from Smart Money Trading. The beginning of that fair value gap is here, which is the point I prefer for a short trade scenario. This fair value gap also adds strength to our level.

If you want to learn more about the fair value gap, just visit my website and go to the Video section. I recently posted a video where I explain it in detail. Now, if I zoom out a bit and show you this weekly volume profile, this is a cumulative profile that displays how volumes were distributed over the whole previous week. The weekly point of control, or the place where the heaviest volumes were traded, is right here. It aligns nicely with our level, just a bit below it, actually—it is at the beginning of that heavy volume zone. This weekly point of control and the heavy volume zone further strengthen our level.

We have heavy volumes here, a fair value gap, and the weekly point of control—all pointing to this level. We just need to wait for that pullback and take it from there. If you want to increase your chances of success and have better trade entries and exits, you can use order flow as the price approaches the level to time your entry better. But if you don’t have order flow, just enter at the first touch of the level, as there is a good chance of a reaction.

Now, let’s move on to the next trading idea, which will be on the AUD/USD. This is the 30-minute chart of the AUD/USD. As you can see, it’s very similar to EUR/USD because there was a rotation from which a strong selloff, caused by the NFP macro news, began. We have heavy volume zones here; let me show you with the volume profile where sellers were active before pushing the price downward. It’s the same scenario as with EUR/USD. We need to wait for the pullback, for the price to reach the beginning of that heavy volume zone, and then go short. The level is at 0.6837. We also have nice confluences here, including a fair value gap—the red zone—from which I plan to trade. Additionally, we have the weekly point of control. If I zoom out, you’ll see the previous week’s volume profile and the weekly point of control, which adds further strength to our level.

One more thing: if you look here and here, the price had strong reactions to this level before, meaning it acted as support in the past. When the price broke through this support, it turned into resistance. This is another factor that strengthens our level. So, we just wait for the pullback and take it from there.

Now, let’s move on to the next trading idea: the GBP/USD. This is a 30-minute chart of the GBP/USD. It looks a bit different from the EUR/USD and AUD/USD as there wasn’t a rotation like in those charts. There was only a small rotation before the strong macro news started, but even so, if you use the volume profile and examine that zone, you’ll still see heavy volumes traded here before the selloff. That’s why I also want to trade from the beginning of this heavy volume zone. The fair value gap, caused by macro news, is similar to those on EUR/USD and AUD/USD. The level is at 1.3164. We don’t have the weekly point of control here, but I believe the level is still strong enough to trade from. What I especially like is the large fair value gap, which shows the aggressiveness and determination of sellers to push the price lower. So, again, we wait for the pullback and take it from there.

Before wrapping up, I’d like to announce the winner of the contest we had last time. The prize was my custom-made volume profile and VWAP indicators for TradingView. Right now, on your screen, you can see the name of the contest winner—congratulations! I’ll be running another contest for next week. To participate, simply leave a comment below this video, which I’ll publish on YouTube, and next week, I’ll randomly select one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.

Thanks for watching the video, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading!

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