Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Today we are going to look at three trading instruments. The first will be the GBP/USD, then the USD/CAD, and then a swing trade on the AUD/NZD. So let’s check it out.
Before you, this is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. And this is a 30-minute chart of the GBP/USD. For my intraday analysis, I like to use the 30-minute chart because it doesn’t show too much detail, but at the same time I can see the bigger picture. The 30-minute chart is sort of the ideal time frame to use for this kind of analysis.
The level I wanted to show you on the GBP/USD is this resistance formed on Friday, and it is at 1.3541. Let me show you why I think this is a strong resistance. The first thing that caught my eye here was a big Fair Value Gap (FVG). This FVG right here is important because it represents strength and aggression—in this case, the aggression of the sellers who were pushing the price aggressively downwards.
Now, when I see an FVG, I also want to see heavy volumes formed before it. Let me show you. For this, I use my Flexible Volume Profile, which you can apply to any area on the chart. The significant volumes before the FVG are in here. This tells us that sellers were building up their short positions here, and then they pushed the price downwards. So, when there’s a pullback to this level, those sellers are likely to defend it and push the price downwards again.
So, we have an FVG, we have a heavy volume cluster, and also one more thing: the price was reacting to this level in the past, which means it was a support. Once the price broke through that support, it turned into resistance. All these factors tell me that this should be a strong resistance to trade from. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the pullback, and when the price hits this level at 1.3541, then I’ll go short from there.
All right, that’s for the GBP/USD. The next trading idea is on the USD/CAD. Here is a 30-minute chart of the USD/CAD, and the level I want to talk about is this short right here at 1.3811. It’s similar to what I showed you on the GBP/USD. In this case, we have a heavy volume zone in here, followed by an aggressive sell-off. This tells me that sellers were active here, building up their short positions in this little rotation, and then they manipulated the price to shoot downwards.
The level I have at 1.3811 is right before this volume peak inside the volume cluster. You can also see a small FVG right at the beginning of this volume peak. So, the confluence of the FVG and the volume cluster makes this a strong level. I’ll wait for the pullback, and when the price reaches this level, I’ll look for a short. What I like here is that we have quite a weak low in this area, and price tends to target weak lows. It’s totally possible that the price will react here and test at least one pip below that weak low. I’m not saying I’ll trade all the way from here to there, but, for example, you could trail the second half of a position and target that place.
All right, that’s the level on the USD/CAD. Now let me switch to my swing trading workspace where I want to show you a swing trade. This is the daily chart. I always use the daily chart for swing trading because it really shows the big picture.
What I want to talk about here is this newly formed support at 1.1177 on the AUD/NZD. This support is based on the buying activity here. Within this buying activity, one important thing happened. If you look at this prominent high and this high, and draw a line here, you’ll see that these highs were broken. The price went past those highs, forming this volume cluster along the way. That means buyers were adding to their long positions here as they pushed through the highs. Now, this is an important level for them—this heavy volume zone.
So, if there’s a pullback to this level, I’ll want to go long from there, because the buyers from this volume cluster are likely to defend it. This is clearly important for them. I’ll wait for the pullback—it doesn’t matter if it takes days, weeks, months, or even half a year. The markets have great memory. I’ll be here with a limit order when the pullback happens, and then go long from there.
Remember, this is a swing trade, so you need to let it breathe, which means adjusting your stop-loss and take-profit accordingly. The stop should be below this rejection and behind the volume cluster, and the take-profit should be at least risk-to-reward 1:1, ideally higher.
That’s that. I hope you guys liked the analysis. If you want to trade with me every day and get my custom-made Volume Profile indicators and other tools, then head over to my website, Trader-Dale.com. If you click on Trading Course and Tools, it will take you to a page where you can browse my trading education and indicators. You can get them separately—the Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money Pack—or you can scroll down a bit and get them all together in one discounted bundle.
Before I wrap up the video, I’d like to announce the winner of the last contest. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for TradingView. Right now, you see the name of the winner on your screen—congratulations! For next week, I’ll run another contest. To participate, simply leave a comment below this YouTube video. Next week, I’ll randomly pick one person to win this set of custom-made indicators.
That’s all for today. Thanks for watching, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading!
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